From monitoring to forecasting: predictive modelling of thermal-induced displacements in heritage masonry – the Batalha Monastery case study

A groundbreaking study at the Monastery of Batalha, Portugal, demonstrates that predictive modelling can accurately forecast thermal-induced displacements in heritage masonry, moving beyond traditional reactive monitoring. By integrating fibre optic sensing with lag-based regression models, researchers achieved high predictive accuracy (R² values above 0.93 for crack monitoring and 0.75–0.95 for joint monitoring), effectively capturing the delayed thermal response of limestone due to its thermal inertia. This approach enables passive alert systems capable of anticipating structural behaviour under climate-driven temperature cycles, offering a scalable solution for preventive conservation worldwide. The methodology transforms high-resolution monitoring data into a proactive tool, directly addressing the resilience challenges faced by monuments exposed to environmental change.

Bourgeois, I., Ferreira, V., & Rodrigues, H. (2026). From monitoring to forecasting: predictive modelling of thermal-induced displacements in heritage masonry – the Batalha Monastery case study. International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, 44(9), 16–34. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijbpa-10-2025-0253