Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy)

Detailed geometric modeling of historical buildings, including perimeter openings, is crucial for accurately estimating debris flow risks at archaeological sites. A multi-scenario analysis of the Villa Romana del Casale, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Sicily, Italy, demonstrated that such detailed modeling prevents overestimation of outdoor debris flows and provides precise risk assessments for internal areas. The study used two-dimensional numerical modeling to evaluate sediment flow arrival times and debris volumes under various landslide triggers upstream of the site, also assessing the effectiveness of existing hydraulic defense works.

Sanfilippo, M., Stancanelli, L. M., Cavallaro, L., Foti, E., & Musumeci, R. E. (2026). Multi-scenario analysis of debris flow propagation on the archaeological site of Villa Romana del Casale (Sicily, Italy). International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 133, 105991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105991