The evolution of an epidemic: age-period-cohort modelling of mesothelioma in Casale Monferrato, 1990–2021, with projections to 2042

A study projecting the future of mesothelioma incidence in Casale Monferrato, Italyreveals that the epidemic driven by asbestos exposure will decline steadily but persist until mid-century. Using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models with data from 1990 to 2021, researchers estimated that cases will return to early 1990s levels by 2035 and drop further by 2042, despite the disease's long latency. The analysis highlighted higher environmental exposure risks for women, who accounted for 58% of non-occupational cases compared to 22% in men. Projections used three modeling approaches, all yielding consistent results, underscoring the need for continued surveillance due to the lingering health burden.

Giraldo, M., Zugna, D., Migliore, E., Ramos-Bonilla, J. P., & Maule, M. (2025). The evolution of an epidemic: age-period-cohort modelling of mesothelioma in Casale Monferrato, 1990–2021, with projections to 2042. Environmental Health, 24(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-025-01236-w