Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bagan (Myanmar)

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bagan, Myanmar, reveals significant underestimation of seismic risk in the region. The study, conducted post-2016 Chauk earthquake, found peak ground acceleration values ranging from 0.25 to 0.36 g for a return period of 2475 years, indicating higher hazard levels than previously estimated. Researchers developed two seismic source models and utilized state-of-the-art ground motion models to assess the seismic vulnerability of 43 temples, incorporating local soil information. The analysis, based on instrumental and historical earthquake records, underscores the need for updated hazard maps and site-specific uniform hazard spectra to mitigate risks to Bagan's historic structures.

Gögen, B., Karimzadeh, S., & Lourenço, P. B. (2024). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bagan (Myanmar). Acta Geophysica, 72(4), 2193–2221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01263-6