Historical and projected climate change for Grand Canyon National Park and surrounding areas

Grand Canyon National Park has experienced significant warming since 1895, with temperatures rising at nearly twice the historical rate (6.31°F/century) from 1970 to 2020. This accelerated warming, observed across all elevations and seasons, is linked to anthropogenic climate change and has triggered cascading ecological disruptions, including reduced soil moisture, altered Colorado River flow, increased wildfire activity, shifts in vegetation zones, and declines in bird and pollinator species. Projections for mid- to late-century suggest continued warming, more extreme precipitation events, earlier runoff, and heightened drought risk, with varying scenarios for winter precipitation, annual rainfall, and fire conditions. These changes pose threats to the park's physical, ecological, and cultural resources, including increased erosion, invasive species expansion, and stress on native ecosystems. The study aims to inform adaptive management strategies by providing a range of plausible climate futures to guide proactive conservation efforts.

Lawrence, D., Tercek, M., Runyon, A., & Wright, J. (2024). Historical and projected climate change for Grand Canyon National Park and surrounding areas (, Ed.). National Park Service. https://doi.org/10.36967/2301726