Evaluación de impacto en áreas de conservación: retos y una herramienta para aplicar análisis contrafactuales

A robust analysis of 23 Colombian national parks reveals that protected areas significantly reduce deforestation, with effectiveness varying between -54% and 100%, though most show positive impacts (average 73.6%). The study introduces CONTRAFACTUAL, a counterfactual tool using propensity score matching to compare treated units (protected areas) against similar control regions. This methodology provides a rigorous framework for evaluating conservation strategies, addressing gaps in impact assessment and offering actionable insights for policymakers, managers, and stakeholders. By contextualizing deforestation metrics, the research demonstrates how contrafactual analysis can enhance adaptive learning and resource allocation in conservation efforts.

Forero-Medina, G., J. Arroyave, F., Rincón-Parra, V. J., Álvarez, S. J., & Negret, P. J. (2026). Impact evaluation in area-based conservation: challenges and an app for conducting counterfactuals in Colombia. Revista de La Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas Y Naturales. https://doi.org/10.18257/raccefyn.4027