An Initial Analysis of the Power of Monitoring certain Indices to Determine the Effect of Fishing on Penguin Reproductive Success from an Experiment where Pelagic Fishing is Prohibited in the Neighbourhood of Robben Island, but Continues around Dassen Island.

A 30% reduction in fishing activity around Robben Island could take up to two decades to detect a statistically significant impact on penguin reproductive success, with fledging success requiring longer monitoring than the breeders per adult moulter ratio. Initial analysis suggests that pelagic fishing may enhance penguin reproduction by scattering large shoals, increasing predator-prey encounters, though these findings are not statistically significant. The study uses General Linear Modelling (GLM) to simulate the power of an experiment where fishing is prohibited near Robben Island but continues around Dassen Island, estimating a 20% process error for monitoring indices and a potential 3% annual population growth rate change.

Brandao, A., & Butterworth, D. (2024). An Initial Analysis of the Power of Monitoring certain Indices to Determine the Effect of Fishing on Penguin Reproductive Success from an Experiment where Pelagic Fishing is Prohibited in the Neighbourhood of Robben Island, but Continues around Dassen Island. University of Cape Town. https://doi.org/10.25375/UCT.25998091