Applying Scenario Planning to Park and Tourism Management in Sagarmatha National Park, Khumbu, Nepal

Scenario planning emerges as a critical tool for navigating long-term uncertainty and complexity in managing Sagarmatha National Park, Nepal. This study demonstrates how participatory scenario planning can guide adaptive management by engaging stakeholders from tourism, park comanagement institutions, and local communities. By developing four plausible scenarios based on governance changes and external tourism influences, the research highlights the need for strategic reflection on potential conflicts and long-term visions. The approach enables stakeholders to explore multiple perspectives, assess strategic goals, and better prepare for social-ecological changes driven by globalization and tourism growth.

Daconto, G., & Sherpa, L. N. (2010). Applying Scenario Planning to Park and Tourism Management in Sagarmatha National Park, Khumbu, Nepal. Mountain Research and Development, 30(2), 103–112. https://doi.org/10.1659/mrd-journal-d-09-00047.1