Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model

A significant decline in natural forests, critical for the ecological values of Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), has been observed under current land management trends. The study, utilizing Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System integrated with a Cellular Automata-Markov model, projected that cultivated land, grassland, bare land, and built-up areas will intensify by 2035, while bushland, forest, water, and woodland will decrease. This highlights the urgent need for rational land use planning to balance ecosystem services protection and sustainable development. Stakeholder involvement is emphasized to support improved management practices.

Mwabumba, M., Yadav, B. K., Rwiza, M. J., Larbi, I., & Twisa, S. (2022). Analysis of land use and land-cover pattern to monitor dynamics of Ngorongoro world heritage site (Tanzania) using hybrid cellular automata-Markov model. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, 4, 100126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2022.100126