Projecting the dynamics of invading deer with pattern‐oriented modelling to support management decision‐making

A sixfold increase in Tasmania’s fallow deer population—from around 80,000 in 2019 to over 500,000 by 2100—can be averted through targeted annual harvests of 25%, which stabilize the population at 32,000–41,000. Despite such measures, deer abundance in the environmentally sensitive Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) is projected to rise under all scenarios. Researchers used a spatially and temporally explicit grid-based model, validated with observed distribution and abundance data via a pattern-oriented approach, to project future invasion dynamics under eight harvest and habitat suitability scenarios. This study demonstrates that strategic increases in harvest, particularly around high-conservation-value regions, can significantly reduce deer numbers while highlighting the persistent challenge of managing invasive species in protected areas.

Botterill‐James, T., Cunningham, C. X., Johnson, C. N., Haythorne, S., Fordham, D. A., Brook, B. W., Duncan, R. P., & Forsyth, D. M. (2023). Projecting the dynamics of invading deer with pattern‐oriented modelling to support management decision‐making. Journal of Applied Ecology, 61(1), 173–185. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14546