Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures

A novel framework integrating centimeter-scale LiDAR modeling, high-resolution CFD simulations, and CMIP6 climate data predicts nonlinear wind erosion risks for earthen heritage sites under multiple future scenarios. Applied to the Xixia Imperial Tombs, this approach reveals that moderate climate forcing (SSP2–4.5) poses higher long-term degradation risk than extreme scenarios (SSP5–8.5), with significant interannual variability and uncertainty ranges. The study advances predictive modeling of climate-driven hazards in arid regions, offering critical insights for resilient conservation strategies under UNESCO’s climate action framework.

Wang, Q., Xiao, J., Dang, A., Xu, X., Huang, J., & Zhang, R. (2026). Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures. Climate Risk Management, 51, 100763. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763