Large dams and small reservoirs: co-modeling water storage strategies in a Mediterranean catchment under a changing climate

Future water storage in Mediterranean reservoirs is projected to decline by up to 21% due to climate change, with small agricultural reservoirs (SmARs) being more vulnerable than large dams. This decline results from reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, alongside decreased seepage losses that reduce aquifer recharge. The study, conducted within the Val d'Orcia Rural Living Lab using a co-modeling approach, simulates various water storage strategies under current and projected future climates, considering five climate models. While large dams face significant evaporation losses, SmARs are more threatened by reduced inflows. The research emphasizes the need for comprehensive, participatory analysis to inform best watershed management practices, highlighting that local actor involvement is crucial for successful adaptation.

Villani, L., Castelli, G., Forzini, E., Piemontese, L., Lucca, E., Bouizrou, I., Lompi, M., Bertoli, G., Giuliano, A., Chiarelli, D. D., Theodotou Schneider, X., Pacetti, T., Caporali, E., & Bresci, E. (2025). Large dams and small reservoirs: co-modeling water storage strategies in a Mediterranean catchment under a changing climate. Frontiers in Water, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1673203