Future land use intensifies trade-offs between development and conservation in the Yellow River Basin's critical ecological areas

Future land use intensifies trade-offs between development and conservation in the Yellow River Basin's critical ecological areas (CEAs). This study reveals that while expanding ecological land can partially mitigate the adverse effects of construction land on ecosystem multifunctionality and stability, it is insufficient to counteract the negative impacts on ecosystem integrity. The research employs the Ecosystem Multifunctionality–Stability–Integrity (MSI) framework to assess future CEA dynamics under four land use scenarios projected for 2030 and 2050: Historical Baseline (HIS), Economic Priority (EN), Ecological Priority (EL), and Ecological-Economic Coordination (EE). The findings indicate that the EL scenario yields the most favorable outcomes, preserving the largest extent of CEA retained regions (CRRs) and the smallest risk areas. Risk areas exhibit significantly lower levels of ecosystem stability and integrity compared to CEA averages. This study provides insights for balancing ecological risk prevention and sustainable development in vulnerable river basins.

Wang, Y., Wang, H., Zhang, Y., Zhao, Z., Yao, S., Fu, B., Lü, Y., & Wu, X. (2026). Future land use intensifies trade-offs between development and conservation in the Yellow River Basin’s critical ecological areas. Resources, Environment and Sustainability, 23, 100301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100301