Forecasting Foreign Guest Nights in Ancient Cities of Sri Lanka

A robust forecasting model, ARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,2)6, has been identified as highly effective for predicting foreign guest nights in Sri Lanka's UNESCO-listed ancient cities, including Polonnaruwa. This model, validated through rigorous statistical tests, demonstrates minimal error and accurately captures the seasonal patterns of tourism occupancy. The study highlights the significance of such forecasting in optimizing hotel operations, influencing pricing, staffing, maintenance, and security strategies. While the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model performs well, future research is recommended to explore the Circular Model for potentially improved forecasting accuracy by accounting for both seasonal and cyclical variations.

Konarasinghe, K. M. U. B. (2018). Forecasting Foreign Guest Nights in Ancient Cities of Sri Lanka. Proceedings of International Forestry and Environment Symposium, 22(0). https://doi.org/10.31357/fesympo.v22i0.3406