Calculation of the SPI, SPEI, and GRDI Indices for Historical Climatic Data from Doñana National Park: Forecasting Climatic Series (2030–2059) Using Two Climatic Scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by IPCC

A significant decline of 13–14% in total precipitation and a reduction of 25–38% in severely to extremely wet periods in Doñana National Park (DNP) was identified through analysis of historical climate data (1985–2015). Projections for 2030–2060 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios revealed a decrease in groundwater recharge rates due to increased evapotranspiration, highlighting the need for mitigation measures. The study utilized SPI, SPEI, and GRDI indices to assess drought conditions, with GRDI providing novel insights into groundwater recharge dynamics.

Montes-Vega, M. J., Guardiola-Albert, C., & Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M. (2023). Calculation of the SPI, SPEI, and GRDI Indices for Historical Climatic Data from Doñana National Park: Forecasting Climatic Series (2030–2059) Using Two Climatic Scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by IPCC. Water, 15(13), 2369. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15132369