Assessment of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Land Surface Temperatures and Their Impact on Surface Urban Heat Island Phenomena in the Kathmandu Valley (1988–2018)

A significant increase in land surface temperatures (LST) of 5–7 °C within urban areas and 3–5 °C at city boundaries was observed in the Kathmandu Valley between 1988 and 2018, coinciding with a rapid expansion of impervious surfaces by 16.34%—primarily at the expense of agricultural land (17.03%). This urbanization trend, analyzed using decadal Landsat imagery and the Support Vector Machine algorithm, exacerbated the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect, as evidenced by a sharp decrease in LST from the city center outward, where vegetation cover increased. Conversely, agricultural areas beyond 20–25 km from the center showed higher LST due to intensified farming activity. The study also highlighted a strong negative correlation between LST and vegetation indices (NDVI, NDMI) but a positive link with built-up areas (NDBI), underscoring urbanization's role in heat amplification. With Kathmandu's population projected to rise from 2.88 million (2016) to 3.85 million by 2035, the findings stress the urgent need for green urban planning to mitigate SUHI impacts.

Sarif, Md. O., Rimal, B., & Stork, N. E. (2020). Assessment of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Land Surface Temperatures and Their Impact on Surface Urban Heat Island Phenomena in the Kathmandu Valley (1988–2018). ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9(12), 726. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9120726