Consensus forecasting of intertidal seagrass habitat in the Wadden Sea

A robust consensus habitat suitability model for intertidal seagrass in the Wadden Sea identifies highly suitable areas where seagrass meadows can establish and persist, offering critical support for conservation planning. The study used 17 years of seagrass survey data from the northern Wadden Sea, combined with high-resolution hydrodynamics and geomorphology models, to train five machine learning approaches. Spatial cross-validation ensured model transferability, while consensus modeling improved prediction accuracy. The model distinguished unsuitable, marginal, and suitable habitats across the entire international Wadden Sea, though unaccounted factors limit seagrass development in the southern region. This approach sets monitoring priorities and provides scientific underpinnings for effective conservation strategies in a dynamic landscape.

Folmer, E. O., van Beusekom, J. E. E., Dolch, T., Gräwe, U., van Katwijk, M. M., Kolbe, K., & Philippart, C. J. M. (2016). Consensus forecasting of intertidal seagrass habitat in the Wadden Sea. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53(6), 1800–1813. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12681