Social vulnerability of historic Districts: A composite measuring scale to statistically predict human-made hazards

Researchers developed predictive models that highlight the significant role of social vulnerability in assessing human-made hazards in historic districts, such as those in Historic Cairo. These models successfully predicted potential hazard rates by analyzing socio-economic weaknesses, demonstrating the importance of integrating social factors into heritage risk assessments. The study used a composite measuring scale validated through exploratory factor analysis and multiple linear regression, revealing three key predictive models: the humans model, the heritage buildings model, and the context model. This quantitative approach offers authorities a tool to formulate effective strategies for preserving historic districts.

Mohamed Tahoon, D., Anwar Abdel-Fattah, N., & Sabry Hegazi, Y. (2023). Social vulnerability of historic Districts: A composite measuring scale to statistically predict human-made hazards. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 14(7), 102002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2022.102002