Multi-Temporal Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios up to 2150 for the Venice Lagoon (Italy)

By 2150, the Venice Lagoon could face severe flooding under high-emission scenarios, with up to 65% of its land area at risk. This study projects relative sea level rise (RSLR) using geodetic data and climate models from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, revealing that extreme water levels could temporarily reach 3.47 meters above current levels. The research integrates GNSS and InSAR data to analyze vertical land movements (VLM), showing rates of 1–3 mm/year with peaks up to 7 mm/year, which significantly influence RSLR across the lagoon. Projections indicate that over 112 km² could be flooded under a low-emission scenario, while a high-emission scenario risks 139 km². These findings challenge the long-term viability of the MoSE barrier system, designed to protect against tides and storm surges up to 3 meters, which may be submerged by 2100. The study underscores the urgent need for enhanced flood resilience strategies to safeguard Venice and its unique lagoon ecosystem.

Anzidei, M., Tolomei, C., Trippanera, D., Alberti, T., Bosman, A., Brunori, C. A., Serpelloni, E., Vecchio, A., Falciano, A., & Deli, G. (2025). Multi-Temporal Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios up to 2150 for the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Remote Sensing, 17(5), 820. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17050820