Future streamflow simulation in a snow-dominated Rocky Mountain headwater catchment

Future streamflow in the Canadian Rocky Mountain Parks, particularly in the Athabasca River catchment within Jasper National Park, is projected to decrease significantly by up to 86% compared to baseline periods due to reduced precipitation. Summer streamflow is expected to drop from 58% to 39%, while spring streamflow may increase by 13-26%, potentially altering the seasonal hydrological patterns. The study, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated with data from global circulation models under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), predicts colder winters with increased snowfall but overall lower precipitation, which could lead to water scarcity in the region.

Neupane, R. P., Adamowski, J. F., White, J. D., & Kumar, S. (2017). Future streamflow simulation in a snow-dominated Rocky Mountain headwater catchment. Hydrology Research, 49(4), 1172–1190. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.024