Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Projected sea-level rise in the Dutch Wadden Sea by 2100 could reach up to 0.76 meters under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, significantly exceeding previous estimates and highlighting the region's vulnerability to climate change. This study compares IPCC AR5 projections with recent updates, incorporating interannual variability from long-term tide-gauge data and assessing potential accelerated Antarctic ice mass loss. Under the RCP2.6 (low-emission) and RCP4.5 (intermediate-emission) scenarios, sea-level rise is projected to be 0.41±0.25m and 0.52±0.27m, respectively, by 2100. The findings underscore the critical need for adaptive strategies in this low-lying UNESCO World Heritage Site, given the potential for extreme storm surges and tidal contributions not accounted for in these projections.

Vermeersen, B. L. A., Slangen, A. B. A., Gerkema, T., Baart, F., Cohen, K. M., Dangendorf, S., Duran-Matute, M., Frederikse, T., Grinsted, A., Hijma, M. P., Jevrejeva, S., Kiden, P., Kleinherenbrink, M., Meijles, E. W., Palmer, M. D., Rietbroek, R., Riva, R. E. M., Schulz, E., Slobbe, D. C., et al. (2018). Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 97(3), 79–127. https://doi.org/10.1017/njg.2018.7