Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo‐West Pacific

Some reefs, including those in Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia, and the southern Great Barrier Reef, show high potential to adapt to rapid warming, maintaining coral cover under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. This resilience is linked to present-day temperature and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations, with the latter being the strongest predictor of adaptive potential. The study used individual-based simulations across 680 reefs in the Central Indo-West Pacific, revealing that most reefs risk collapse within a century without selection or migration. These findings can guide conservation efforts and assisted gene flow interventions to enhance coral adaptation.

Matz, M. V., Treml, E. A., & Haller, B. C. (2020). Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo‐West Pacific. Global Change Biology, 26(6), 3473–3481. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15060