Reconstructing the peak flow of historical flood events using a hydraulic model: The city of Bath, United Kingdom

Including historical flood data can significantly increase estimates of extreme flood risk. A 1D hydraulic model of the River Avon in Bath, UK, revealed that incorporating pre-1960 flood events raised the 1-in-100-year design flood estimate by up to 30%. The study reconstructed peak flows for 16 historical events using archival cross-sections, technical drawings, and epigraphic marks, then calibrated the model against two known floods (1947 and 1960). By extending the annual maximum flow series back to 1866, researchers demonstrated how long-term flood frequency analysis can improve modern risk assessments. This approach highlights the importance of historical records in refining flood defense planning.

Stamataki, I., & Kjeldsen, T. R. (2021). Reconstructing the peak flow of historical flood events using a hydraulic model: The city of Bath, United Kingdom. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 14(3). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12719