Mid‐Holocene drying of K'gari lakes (subtropical eastern Australia) necessitates re‐evaluation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate links and future drying risk

A mid-Holocene drying event (7640–5600 cal years BP) identified in three deep lakes on K’gari (Fraser Island, subtropical eastern Australia) contradicts the prevailing narrative of late-Holocene aridification linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification. Analysis of sediment cores and geochemical proxies reveals a shift from wetter conditions toward the late Holocene, challenging assumptions about ENSO’s role in regional climate change. This finding underscores the vulnerability of even large, deep lakes—critical for biodiversity, culture, and tourism—to drying under future climate scenarios.

Tibby, J., Cadd, H., Harris, M., Marshall, J. C., Tyler, J., Barr, C., McInerney, F., Moss, P., Murphy, C., Gadd, P. S., Jacobsen, G. E., Raven, M., McGregor, G., Schulz, C., & Hofmann, H. (2025). Mid‐Holocene drying of K’gari lakes (subtropical eastern Australia) necessitates re‐evaluation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate links and future drying risk. Journal of Quaternary Science, 40(8), 1437–1451. Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.70016