Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Under the most severe climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), three UNESCO World Heritage Sites (WCHS) in Spain face potential submersion by seawater by 2100, while eight sites are at high risk of weather-induced fires, particularly those surrounded by broad-leaved forests or grasslands like the Caliphate city of Medina Azahara and the archaeological site of Atapuerca. The study, leveraging CMIP6 climate models and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), quantifies risks such as sea level rise, fire hazards, hydrodynamic scouring, corrosion, biodegradation, and drought for Spain's WCHS from 2081 to 2100. It reveals a doubling of extreme climate risks under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to milder pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0), with significant regional variations in vulnerability. The findings underscore the critical role of achieving carbon neutrality in mitigating these risks and inform long-term protection strategies for Spain's culturally significant sites.

Hu, H., & Hewitt, R. J. (2024). Future climate risks to world cultural heritage sites in Spain: A systematic analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 113, 104855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104855