Reconstructing a hydraulic model for historic flood levels in the city of Bath, United Kingdom

A hydraulic model reconstructing historic flood levels in Bath, UK, demonstrates that documentary evidence of past floods can significantly reduce uncertainty in contemporary flood risk assessments. The study, focusing on the River Avon, leveraged a rich record of 19th-century to present-day flood marks, maps, photographs, and newspaper articles to numerically reconstruct the 1960 flood event—a catalyst for Bath's current flood protection scheme. By comparing this model with a simple Manning equation approach, researchers found that hydraulic modeling offers more accurate estimates of design flood flows, thereby improving future risk predictions. Sensitivity analyses further assessed uncertainties in water levels during extreme events, highlighting the potential of historical data to enhance flood defense strategies.

Stamataki, I., & Kjeldsen, T. (2020). Reconstructing a hydraulic model for historic flood levels in the city of Bath, United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3751