Integrating geo-spatial analysis and gray relational approach for wildfire susceptibility mapping in Bale Mountain National Park, Ethiopia

In Bale Mountains National Park, Ethiopia, shrubland and grassland are identified as the most vulnerable vegetation types to wildfires, with land cover being the primary driver. A study integrating geo-spatial analysis and gray relational analysis (GRA) revealed that vegetation type, elevation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are the key factors influencing wildfire susceptibility, accounting for 20.8%, 18.2%, and 16.1% respectively. The research found that most fire hotspots occur in higher elevations with steep slopes, while fire intensity diminishes with distance from highways and human settlements. Approximately 936.61 km² (39.77%) of the park has low vulnerability, 1411.37 km² (59.93%) moderate, and only 7.02 km² (0.3%) high susceptibility to wildfires. The study underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive fire management strategy to protect the park's ecology from uncontrolled fires.

Bekalo, D. J., Bojer, A. K., Debelee, T. G., Negera, W. G., Al-Quraishi, A. M. F., Gebissa, K. W., & Deche, A. (2026). Integrating geo-spatial analysis and gray relational approach for wildfire susceptibility mapping in Bale Mountain National Park, Ethiopia. Trees, Forests and People, 23, 101159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2026.101159