Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

By mid-21st century, Yellowstone National Park's forest cover and species composition will shift significantly due to climate change and wildfire. Under moderate warming (>2°C) and increased precipitation (3–5%), burned area could rise 1.2–4.2 times, reducing forest cover by 10–44% and basal area by 14–60%. Lodgepole pine declines while Douglas-fir expands, driven by climate-altered fire regimes. Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) with higher precipitation (12–13%) may boost forest cover, favoring spruce and subalpine fir. These projections stem from FireBGCv2 model simulations under three climate scenarios, revealing how changing fire dynamics and species responses reshape the landscape.

Clark, J. A., Loehman, R. A., & Keane, R. E. (2017). Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists. Ecosphere, 8(1). Portico. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1636