Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

A participatory system dynamics model reveals that unchecked tourism growth and residential population expansion in the Galápagos Islands severely shock the natural environment, particularly by increasing invasive species threats and saturating the Galapagos National Park's tourism reception capacity. The study integrates stakeholder perspectives with quantitative data to simulate three tourism growth scenarios, demonstrating critical social-ecological feedbacks that could disrupt the islands' unique ecosystem. This decision-support tool offers policy-makers a way to better understand and manage the coupled human-natural system, ensuring sustainable conservation outcomes.

Pizzitutti, F., Walsh, S. J., Rindfuss, R. R., Gunter, R., Quiroga, D., Tippett, R., & Mena, C. F. (2016). Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 25(8), 1117–1137. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2016.1257011