Is the future given? Cumulative impact of Climate change and MOSE closures on Venice and its lagoon.

A systematic analysis reveals that the MOSE flood barrier system, while effective at mitigating sea level rise impacts on Venice, significantly increases lagoon water renewal time and exacerbates temperature-related stresses under high-emission scenarios. Projections indicate that by 2100, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the lagoon could remain closed for about 260 days a year, with water temperatures exceeding 30°C for over four months, and more than 35% of the lagoon experiencing delayed water renewal beyond 20 days. However, these impacts are substantially less severe under the RCP4.5 scenario, highlighting the potential for combined global mitigation and local adaptation strategies to protect both Venice and its lagoon ecosystem. The study underscores the critical need for site-specific, carefully planned adaptation measures to safeguard this UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Canu, D. M., Aveytua-Alcazar, L., Laurent, C., Rosati, G., & Solidoro, C. (2023). Is the future given? Cumulative impact of Climate change and MOSE closures on Venice and its lagoon. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3731067/v1